一项独家民调显示，唐纳德·特朗普在颇具影响力的新罕布什尔州初选中保持着强大的领先优势，但他的头号竞争对手出现了新的挑战者:前联合国大使尼基·黑利。
这项由《今日美国》、《波士顿环球报》和萨福克大学共同开展的民调显示，特朗普的支持率为49%，黑利为19%。虽然30个百分点的差距令人生畏，但她已经超过了佛罗里达州州长罗恩·德桑蒂斯(Ron DeSantis)，后者已经失去了他曾经作为特朗普的主要替代人选的地位。
德桑蒂斯在民调中的支持率已降至10%。
“我不是百分之百支持妮基;就我目前所关注的来看，她是最接近我希望看到的总统的人，”72岁的戴维·帕奎特(David Paquette)说。他是新罕布什尔州阿特金森(Atkinson)的一名退休工程师，也是接受调查的人之一。作为一名政治独立人士，他喜欢德桑蒂斯在佛罗里达州的记录，也在考虑他。“他有很多伟大的计划，他实际上已经实施了。”
周四至周一期间，通过固定电话和手机对500名可能参加共和党初选的选民进行了调查，误差率为正负4.4个百分点。被允许在新罕布什尔州初选中投票的独立人士占样本的40%;60%是共和党人。
对于共和党人来说，最重要的事情是提名一位反映他们优先事项和价值观的候选人(49%)，还是提名一位可能击败乔·拜登(Joe Biden)总统连任的候选人(47%)，这些选民几乎平分。
即使特朗普的地位稳固，也有一些迹象表明，这场竞选是不稳定的。
当被问及特朗普的提名是否不可避免，或者其他候选人是否会赢得共和党提名时，受访者的支持率为48%对44%。近四成(39%)的人表示，他们可能会在初选前改变主意。
也就是说，特朗普的支持者比其他任何竞争者的支持者都更忠诚。84%的人表示他们已经下定决心支持他;只有15%的人说他们可能会换别人。
“上次特朗普在那里的时候，我信任他;他为我们做了好事，我不在乎别人怎么说，”来自新罕布什尔州纽波特的62岁注册共和党人乔伊斯·布里安德(Joyce Briand)说。Briand是一名退休的持证护理助理，他补充说，“特朗普可能会做一些坏事;每个人都一样。我不喜欢他说的一些话。他有时应该闭上嘴巴。但当他说他要做某事时，他就会做到。”
其他候选人的得票率都没有达到两位数。前新泽西州州长克里斯·克里斯蒂的支持率为6%;科技企业家Vivek Ramaswamy和南卡罗来纳州参议员Tim Scott得票率为4%，前副总统Mike Pence和北达科他州州长Doug Burgum得票率为1%。
到目前为止，黑利在共和党的两场辩论中表现强劲，这对他的支持率起到了提振作用。在8月第一次辩论之前的6个月里，在新罕布什尔州进行的11项民意调查中，她的支持率从未超过6%。《今日美国》的民调显示她的支持率创下新高。
“这可能意味着黑利将获得更多的资金、信誉和采访机会，”萨福克大学政治研究中心主任戴维·帕莱洛戈斯(David Paleologos)说。“更重要的是，其他人现在将有理由退出，支持黑利挑战前总统特朗普。”
但帕莱洛戈斯警告说，即使这种不太可能的发展也不一定能让黑利获胜，因为其他候选人的一些支持者会转而支持特朗普。他说:“加上其他主要候选人的第二选择选票，即使他们都支持黑利，特朗普的支持率也在55%以上。”
Asked what their second choice would be, DeSantis fared best, at 24%; Haley was at 13%, Ramaswamy at 11% and Scott at 10%.
Nine percent named Trump as their second choice.
The former president's legal troubles, with 91 criminal counts filed in four jurisdictions, don't seem to raise serious concerns among most of these voters.
Close to half, 46%, agreed with a statement that the investigations were politically motivated and Trump had done nothing wrong. Another 27% said he had made “questionable choices at times” but hadn't broken the law.
only 21% said there was “credible evidence to suggest that Donald Trump committed crimes when he was in office.”
“It's a sham, just like his impeachment when he was in office was a sham,” said Jacob Brouillard, 39, of Nottingham, N.H., the manager at a chemical manufacturer who is also a member of the state legislature. “I think they're just kind of making up these charges as they go along hoping that something sticks to the wall, pretty much.”
Federal prosecutors have accused Trump with trying to overturn the 2020 presidential election and with mishandling sensitive national-security papers after he left office. He also has been charged in Georgia with trying to overturn the election and in New York with violating finance laws by allegedly paying hush money to a porn star.
A $250 million civil fraud trial is now underway in New York alleging wrongdoing by Trump, his two older sons and other Trump organization executives.
Two issues are at the top of voters' minds.
More than a third, 37% said immigration and border security are the most important issues affecting their vote. Nearly as many 32%, identified the economy and jobs. No other issue was cited by more than 5%.
“It would be the border,” Ronald Sassi, 76, of Chichester, N.H., replied when asked to name the most important issue for him. Then the economy, the Republican retiree said, “because I have a feeling everything is going to crash coming very soon.”
By 58%-36%, those surveyed supported ending so-called birthright citizenship for the children of immigrants who entered the U.S. illegally. The idea has been endorsed by Trump, Ramaswamy, Scott and others, although most legal scholars say such a move would violate the Constitution's 14th Amendment.
Nearly half of those surveyed, 49%, said their personal financial situation was worse than before the coronavirus pandemic. And inflation continues to bite. One in four, 27%, called inflation “the worst I've ever seen.” Another 9% said they couldn't pay their bills.
However, there was nearly universal agreement on two factors that wouldn't affect their vote.
One was the endorsement promised by New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu; 86% said it wouldn't make a difference to their decision. Even more dismissed the results of the Iowa caucuses. Ninety percent said Iowa's results wouldn't affect their choice.
The Iowa contest is set for Jan. 15. The New Hampshire primary is expected to be scheduled for Jan. 23.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Haley surges past DeSantis in New Hampshire as Trump maintains lead
